调研：软件公司收购额节节攀升 其动因是什么？

译者：张苏月

2016年被人们视为资本寒冬的一年，然而软件公司的收购却呈现出价高的趋势，究其原因则是企业模式变革的需要所致。

人们常说2016年是资本进入寒冬期的一年。这一年主要的资本投资在第三季度下降了55%。IPO市场也呈现两个完全不同的景象，一方面一些公司能够上市，达到估值标准，但这个数量还是少之又少。另一方面，并购活动似乎很活跃，仅在过去的9个月中就有30多个超十亿美元的收购案发生。那么，所有这些因素混合在一起会对今天的并购环境产生怎样的影响？其相较于历史的规模又是如何？

收购现象呈价高量少的趋势

2016年至今，软件公司收购总计已经达到540亿美元了。2016年的速度足以赶上过去三年的软件收购趋势了，从640 – 700亿美元不等。然而，收购的总数可能会下降40%，从平均每年的150起下降到92起。也就是说收购数量降低，收购价格却升高。

从上图可以看出，在过去的六年中，一家软件公司的平均收购价格在4千万美元到8千万美元之间，而2016年则达到6千万美元。

另一方面，软件收购在2010年之前达到约2.5亿美元的稳定收购价格后在2016年已经冲到平均10亿美元。

最大的收购金额到底能达到多少？

这是因为规模最大的收购仍然在继续增加。而本世纪初，最大的软件收购从40亿美元到80亿美元不等，在过去的四年中，规模最小的收购是80亿美元，最大则达到290亿美元。

有趣的是，收购总额并没有像预期的在SaaS公司减少57%的倍数上大大提高。在过去的几个月里，收购估值倍数呈现出先降后升的趋势，均值达到5.0，与2014年初的平均值5.45非常接近。

总之，最大的收购仍然在继续增长。照这样下去，预计今后每个公司也都将成为软件公司，这种根本性的变革是由于现代企业想要改变传统的模式而进行大规模收购所导致的。

原文

How Big Is A Typical Software Company Acquisition?

TOMASZ TUNGUZ

2016 has been a volatile year. Major capital investments fell 55% in Q3. The IPO market is a tale of two cities with some companies able to go public and catapult their valuations, but the overall number remains in the single digits. Last, M&A activity seems quite brisk with more than 30 $1B+ billion acquisitions in the last nine months alone. How do all these factors commingle to influence today’s acquisition environment? And how does it compare historically?

Year to date, $54B worth of software companies have been acquired. 2016 is on pace to match the past three years of software acquisition trends which vary from $64B-$70B. However, in 2016 the total number of acquisitions will likely fall by 40% from an average of 150 per year to 92. Fewer acquisitions at higher prices.

Over the course of those six years, the median acquisition price of a software company has varied between $40M and $80M and in 2016 has settled to about $60M.

On the other hand, the average software acquisition is hurtling toward $1 billion in value after having plateaued around $250M earlier in the decade.

That’s because the very largest acquisitions continue to increase in size. Whereas earlier in the decade, the largest software acquisitions varied from $4 to $8B, in the last four years, the smallest maximum acquisition is $8B and the largest is $29B.

Interestingly, the total value of acquisitions hasn’t increased dramatically as one might have expected given the 57% reduction in multiples of SaaS companies in particular. Over the last few months we seen a reversion to the mean of about 5x forward revenues compared to recent highs of 7.7x (in early 2014) and lows of 3.2.

In summary, the very largest acquisitions continue to grow larger,. Every company is becoming a software company and the transformational change that as a Service software delivery challenges incumbents to pivot their businesses to new models, often in the form of very large acquisitions.

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